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The Local Sweden · 13 tim sedan Utrikes

Politics in Sweden: Will overseas Swedes decide the 2026 election?

Swedish voters living abroad could prove crucial in this autumn's election, as Swedish polls tend to be tight races.

The Swedish election is fast approaching, and voting cards are now being sent out to more than 200,000 Swedes who are eligible to vote from abroad.

Earlier this year, the government tasked the Election Authority with expanding its outreach to Swedes abroad in a bid to boost their turnout.

"In the spring, we sent letters to around 82,000 Swedes abroad who had dropped off the electoral register to urge them to sign up again. We have also created a guide on val.se for Swedes abroad and an information campaign targeting overseas Swedes, which kicks off at the end of July," the TT news agency quoted Annica Sundel, a manager at the Election Authority, as saying when the first voting cards went out on July 7th.

There may be several reasons why the government is hoping to grow the overseas vote.

Swedish citizens living abroad retain voting rights in the parliamentary election automatically for their first ten years abroad and after that need to apply to the Swedish Tax Agency every ten years to remain on the electoral roll.

But on average, just over 30 percent of the some 200,000 Swedes living abroad usually cast their ballot. That compares to an overall turnout of around 85 percent.

"Swedes who live, work or study abroad are an invaluable asset to Sweden. They strengthen Swedish competitiveness, build relationships and contribute to a cultural exchange as well as growth. No matter where in the world they are, it should be easy to continue to be part of Sweden and exercise one's democratic right to vote," wrote Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard and Culture Minister Parisa Liljestrand in an opinion piece in March.

But there's also a less altruistic reason. Swedes abroad also skew heavily towards the right-wing parties, according to research conducted by the SOM Institute at Gothenburg University.

For example, in the 2014 election, the Moderates received 23 percent of the overall vote, but a whopping 36 percent of the overseas vote.

The centre-left Social Democrats, on the other hand, who won that election overall with 31 percent, received just 15 percent of the overseas vote.

In fact, had Swedes abroad got to decide the outcome of that election, the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals would have been able to form a majority government with 51 percent altogether.

The far-right Sweden Democrats, conversely, bucked the trend and received 7 percent of the overseas vote and 13 percent of the overall vote.

And according to pollofpolls.se, which compiles the results of all the major polls, the four right-wing parties are currently polling at 44.1 percent, which is set to be even lower if the Liberals drop out of parliament as expected – so they are going to need all the votes they can get.

Other measures to boost overseas turnout are that digital voting cards have been introduced, and the number of overseas polling stations has been expanded to nearly 300, with extended opening hours.

Swedes living abroad can either vote early at embassies and consulates around the world or vote by post. According to the Election Authority, the most common mistake people make is failing to follow the instructions carefully enough when filling out their overseas voting cards.

In the 2022 election, 13 percent of postal votes were disqualified due to formal errors, such as missing signatures from the voter or witnesses.

"We also see that votes can arrive too early, but also too late, meaning they don't make it to the count in time. It also happens that not all the information has been filled in," said Sundel.

Voting cards and ballot papers must be posted no earlier than July 30th.

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