In Indikator Opinion's October poll, the Moderate Party is nearly as popular as the Social Democrats – the gap is only 0.7 percentage points – reports public radio broadcaster Sveriges Radio (SR).
The poll shows the Moderate Party at 26.3 percent support, compared to 27.0 percent for the Social Democrats. This represents an increase of 6.5 percentage points for the Moderate Party compared to the election result.
The rise is attributed to the Moderate Party gaining voters from other parties, including the other "Tidö" parties (the governing coalition partners), as well as from the Centre Party and the Social Democrats.
At the same time, the Tidö coalition parties would not secure a parliamentary majority if votes fell along the lines suggested by this poll, because the poll also showed the Liberal Party falling below the parliamentary threshold at 3.8 percent.
The Christian Democrats and the Sweden Democrats also showed declines in the poll, coming in 4.8 percent and 16.3 percent, respectively. The drops for the Liberal Party and the Christian Democrats were statistically significant.
Aside from the Moderate Party, the Green Party was the only other party to show gains compared to the election result. They polled at 7.3 percent.
Polls from other research firms have also recently shown an upward trend for the Moderate Party; however, this October poll from Indikator is the first to show such a narrow margin between the Moderates and the Social Democrats.