"It is clear that Tidö will not assemble a majority – there's less than a fraction of a percent's chance according to our simulations. In all material respects, it's done," said mathematician and economist Gustav Karreskog Rehbinder, who developed the forecast model in collaboration with SVT.
On Wednesday evening, counting was under way for the late-arriving votes from the remaining polling districts. A single seat bounced back and forth between the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats seven times in just one hour on Wednesday evening. Later in the evening it jumped from the Social Democrats to the Moderates, and then later to the Left Party. At 9.30pm the seat division stood at 176-173 to the left-wing bloc.
The opposition's overall lead against the Tidö parties remained intact the whole time.
"The final seat – whether it ends up as 176 or 175 for the centre-left – isn't certain yet. And it's possible we will need to wait for the final official vote count to know for sure," Karreskog Rehbinder said.
Swedish word of the day: mandatpingis
Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist wrote on X that it is a tight election and all parties need to respect the outcome.
"If the forecast holds, the Tidö parties have lost their governing mandate and Sweden has said no to Sweden Democrat ministers," she wrote.
Thand Ringqvist also argued that solutions need to be found "across old bloc divides" and that the result does not point to a "shift to the left in politics".
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of the Moderate Party declined to comment when approached by the TT news agency, citing the fact that all votes had not yet been fully counted.
According to the Election Authority the count is expected to finish on Thursday, with Stockholm expected to finish on Wednesday night and Gothenburg on Thursday.