If the Sweden Democrats’ vote had held up, the Tidö government would have had another four years to run. Instead, it fell by three percentage points and left the government two seats shy of a majority as things stand with most of the votes counted.
This is the first time the Sweden Democrats have shrunk in a national election. In 2022 they were the largest right-wing party; now the Moderates have regained their crown. Jimmie Åkesson’s plans ranged from being a minister in a new right-wing government or the ‘leader of the opposition’ and the right-wing’s prime ministerial candidate in 2030.
That’s all now history. Don’t underestimate the psychological effect this will have on the party.
How the Sweden Democrats interpret their loss will have profound implications for the party’s future direction — and its ability to form a stable coalition with the centre-right. Were voters scared off by stories of teen deportations and other injustices? Or did they decide that the dirty work of cracking down on crime and immigration was complete, and that they could now safely vote for a less controversial party? In this case the party might conclude that it needs to stay the course and keep trying to look respectable.
Or were the Sweden Democrats simply starting to look too house-trained? A campaign where the main promise was cheaper dentistry and a ministerial car for Jimmie Åkesson maybe didn’t provide the thrills their voters have come to expect. In this telling of the story, it might be time to take off the gloves, let Richard Jomshof loose on X and double down on the culture wars. Yet there’s no sign that they shed votes to even more radical parties. Perhaps the far-right wave is simply receding?
Over the past decade, almost every other Swedish party has defined itself in relation to the Sweden Democrats: either competing with them to look tough on migration and crime, or positioning themselves against the far-right usurpers. That too will change now.
If the right-wing parties get a chance to form a government, the Sweden Democrats will face a confident Moderate Party. The party points to the fact that all three parties in the current government — including the Liberals and the Christian Democrats — increased their share of the vote.
The Moderate dream is to tempt the Centre Party, which they think of as a natural bedfellow, over to the right. Surely the only way for the Centre Party to accept this is if the Sweden Democrats are put in their box, and kept out of government — a government that would still rely on their support. It’s hard to see the Sweden Democrats accepting this humiliation.
Sunday’s result was also a blow to the Social Democrats, who may have scored their worst-ever result in an election (it’s touch-and-go whether they can beat 2018’s record low). Slowly, with almost every election that passes, the Social Democrats’ special place as the natural party of government withers away. This disappointment this time round will be tempered if they can get back into government, but how to form an administration that needs every single vote from the Left Party, the Greens and the market liberal Centre Party?
Shocked and despondent Sweden Democrats, weakened Social Democrats, a cocky Left Party and a confident Moderate Party. No clear majority for either bloc — this election will cause months of political uncertainty. The Sweden Democrats aren’t about to disappear, but whatever government emerges, they have lost their invincible air.
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