SWEDISH ELECTION LIVE: Left and right bloc almost neck and neck as half of districts counted
"This election isn't over before a new prime minister has been accepted by the Swedish parliament, and until then it isn't over," Moderate Party chief strategist Martin Borgs told the TT newswire.
In Sweden a prime minister does not need the support of a majority in parliament, rather they need a majority in parliament to not be against them – or in other words, they need a majority to tolerate them.
"If there is a non-socialist majority in the Swedish parliament, then we believe we have good chances of getting our policies passed," Borgs said, referring to the fact that the Centre Party are considered a borgerlig or right-wing party, despite the fact that they support Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson as their prime ministerial candidate.
According to sources speaking to Swedish media, sitting prime minister Ulf Kristersson has no plans to admit defeat on election night even if the left-wing bloc (Social Democrats, Centre Party, Left Party, Green Party) is larger than the ruling Tidö parties, made up of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals and supported by the Sweden Democrats.
According to the first exit poll from public broadcaster SVT, the left wing parties had a clear lead. An hour and a half later, however, the broadcaster issued a new election forecast showing that the two sides are neck-and-neck.
If the exit polls are correct, Andersson would need support from her own party as well as the Left Party, Green Party and Centre.
"We're going to get Magdalena Andersson as the prime minister of our country," Social Democrat party secretary Tobias Baudin said when the original exit poll was published.
The Left Party has demanded ministerial posts in return for its support for a Social Democrat-led government.
"There will be four of us who will need to negotiate," Left Party deputy leader Ida Gabrielsson said when the first exit poll was announced.
Andersson, however, has said during the election campaign that the Left Party has a long way to go before it can be part of a government.
The Centre Party has also said that it will not support a government which includes Left Party ministers. Instead, it is aiming for a government spanning the centre, ruling out working alongside the Sweden Democrats.
Anderssons said on Saturday night, the day before the election, that she would contact all party leaders except Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, to negotiate if her bloc wins.
She has said that she is open to work with all parties bar the Sweden Democrats, with the party making obvious moves to woo the Christian Democrats out of the four right-wing parties.
Negotiations could mean working together in government, but they could also mean working together on individual pieces of policy, for example the budget, or working together on certain issues.
If Andersson is to be successful, she needs fewer no votes than yes votes in parliament. Abstentions are for that reason effectively a vote in favour.